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Projections

• Lokomotiv Atlanta over Wheels World by 25.4
• The Ashkickers over illinois frostes by 4.7
• Slashing Dragons over Darko The Dwarves by 16.7
• Upland Raptors over Riverside Douchebags by 18.2
• Cold Fish over Midnight Tokers by 11.2
• The Mercenaries over white -red knights by 0.5
• Balls of Steel over Misfits by 5.9
• Trombe BC over homeboyz by 54.5

Predictions :

• The Ashkickers over Slashing Dragons by 2.5
• Lokomotiv Atlanta over Misfits by 15.7
• illinois frostes over Darko the Dwarves by 12.7
• Trombe BC over Riverside Douchebags by by 14.4
• The Mercenaries over Midnight Tokers by 0.2
• Balls over Steels over Wheels World by 15.2
• Cold Fish over white -red knights by 8.7
• Upland Raptors over homeboyz by 37.6

First of all, strength of schedule has been added to the stats.  This is really a no brainer in the additions department.  You really shouldn’t see a huge jump in your ranking just because you got your turn to pound the league weakling.  So now the rankings will reflect that.

Second, and a much larger change is twofold.  First, the rankings will only reflect the last 11 games of the season.  And second, those games will be weighted, with the most recent game being weighed the most.  There is a fairly good reason for this.  I wanted to improve upon the predictive nature of these rankings, to evaluate how strong an opponent is currently playing.  Once we are up to 11 games played, the most recent game will weigh about twice as much as the first game counted.  Overall, this will help the rankings give a better picture of how the teams are playing at the moment.  It favors consistency over getting a hot early start and fading.

Now, on to the rankings!

Most of the rankings make sense, but you may be thinking that Slashing Dragons is ranked way too low.  The Dragons only have one loss, but it was a really bad loss to a team that has otherwise played very poorly.  Before that game, the Dragons overall score was in the high 20’s.  That game by itself dropped his overall score 20 points.  Regardless of how they’ve looked the other 4 games, they were really, really bad that one, and it can’t be ignored.

Projected Scores

I am also shaking up how I am projecting scores this season.  During my commentary during last season, I’d often mention individual matchups between offense and defense.  Unfortunately, this was not how I calculated the projections, instead simply using the overall scores for each team.  This season, I am using matchups of each team, offense vs. defense and head to head on rebounding.  This should yield more accurate results.  Unfortunately, I have not yet completed my data collection on home court advantage, so I am just using rough estimates based on last year’s data.

• Lokomotiv Atlanta over Upland Raptors by 13.6
• Trombe BC over Balls of Steel by 10.1
• The Mercenaries over illinois frostes by 3.5
• The Ashkickers over white -red knights by 5.9
• Darko The Dwarves over Midnight Tokers by 0.1
• Slashing Dragons over Cold Fish by 13.5
• Wheels World over Riverside Douchebags by 1.8
• Misfits over homeboys by 21.1

Through game 20

Team	Scoring Index	Rebounding Index	Defensive Index	Passing Index	Power Score
Trombe BC	104.7	108.3	79.3	13.7	40.4
New York Knuckleheads	98.1	111.2	78.6	9.4	33.1
Balls of Steel	92.6	107	87.3	7.9	13.3
Cold Fish	98.9	107.8	99	6.9	7.6
Slashing Dragons	99	96	90.9	10.4	7.5
Upland Raptors	94	103.4	89.1	5.8	7.2
The Mercenaries	97.8	93.7	86.7	6.3	4.1
Wheels World	95.2	100.7	96.2	8.1	0.8
white -red knights	90.6	99.3	94	6.6	-4.5
Misfits	92.5	99.9	100.5	5.5	-9.6
illinois frostes	89.9	90.9	92.5	8.8	-9.9
The Ashkickers	91.9	92.3	94.4	4	-13.2
Bautosai	90	104	102	1.5	-13.5
Crooklyn Ruckus	87.5	102.3	106	6.7	-16.5
BC Iron Horse	92.3	100.4	108	4.8	-17.6
Cathar Heretics	88.9	85.5	96.9	5.9	-23.5

Single Game Stats

Team	Scoring	Rebounding	Defense	Passing	Power
Balls of Steel	92.7	120.4	68.4	9.4	46.7
New York Knuckleheads	95.4	118.6	83.2	14.3	37.6
Misfits	104.6	126.7	107.9	6.6	22.7
Trombe BC	98.1	113.8	93.2	11.1	22.4
The Ashkickers	120.8	90.5	101.5	12.6	15
Slashing Dragons	96.4	99.6	88.3	14	14.3
Upland Raptors	99.2	115	98	0	8.9
Crooklyn Ruckus	102.5	110.2	109.1	5.4	1.6
BC Iron Horse	109.1	89.8	102.5	8.8	-2.1
Bautosai	101.5	109.5	120.8	3.8	-13.4
Wheels World	88.3	100.4	96.4	1	-14.1
Cathar Heretics	98	85	99.2	8	-15.7
white -red knights	93.2	86.2	98.1	1.6	-24.5
The Mercenaries	107.9	73.3	104.6	5.9	-25
illinois frostes	83.2	81.4	95.4	4.1	-34.1
Cold Fish	68.4	79.6	92.7	12.4	-39.6

And now we move on to the playoff odds.

Big 8 Playoff Odds

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Overall
New York Knuckleheads	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Upland Raptors	0.0%	99.1%	0.9%	0.0%	100.0%
The Mercenaries	0.0%	0.9%	99.1%	0.0%	100.0%
Misfits	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Great 8 Playoff Odds

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Overall
Trombe BC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Balls of Steel	0.0%	94.5%	3.8%	1.6%	99.9%
Cold Fish	0.0%	1.7%	64.5%	30.7%	96.9%
Slashing Dragons	0.0%	3.7%	29.8%	53.9%	87.4%
Wheels World	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	13.9%	15.8%

white -red knights move out of contention this round, as the odds of them catching up two games AND overcoming their PD deficiency is very, very small.  It is not mathematically impossible, but it is pretty close.  Misfits victory over The Mercenaries on Saturday locked up the 4th playoff spot, and essentially secured the 2nd playoff spot for the Upland Raptors.  Wheels World lost what could have been considered a play-in game with Slashing Dragons, and are now on the outside looking in.  All is not lost, but hope is fading quickly.  Balls of Steel and Cold Fish both play The Ashkickers and Bautosai to finish the season, an easy schedule to cruise into the playoffs.  Slashing Dragons and Wheels World both play white -red knights and Trombe BC, a much tougher schedule.  With Slashing Dragons holding a game advantage and the tiebreaker, they are by far favored to make the playoffs.

And now on to predictions.

Slashing Dragons at Trombe BC

Today we have two games between teams in playoff positions.  Slashing Dragons are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 9 in a row to go from a 3-8 team fighting to avoid relegation to a 12-8 team likely to make the playoffs.  Their last loss in a league game was over a month ago, on July 11.  And these have not generally been close game, with a 25 point average margin of victory during that win streak.  It may come to sudden half tonight as the Dragons face the best team in the league.  The Dragons have the scoring and defense to stay in the game, but it is in rebounding they fall short.  Trombe will likely win handily on second chance points.

Trombe BC by 31.0 (96.1%)

Misfits at New York Knuckleheads

Here we have a preview of a first round matchup, although here neither team has much to play for.  Both teams are locked into their playoff spots, unable to rise or fall in the standings.  The result here will likely mirror that in the playoffs, a blowout for the home team.

New York Knuckleheads by 38.3 (97.9%)

white -red knights at Wheels World

While effectively out of the playoff race, white -red knights does have something to play for.  He does have a decent enough shot at moving out of relegation match range (whether or not that is a good thing is up to you).  If he wins this game and at least doesn’t get blown out by Slashing Dragons, there is a chance that he might take the tiebreaker and move into the 5th spot in the rankings.  Wheels World needs this win just to keep his playoff hopes alive.  These teams are nearly identical in their ratings with Wheels World holding a slight edge in just about every category.  Home court makes up a large portion of this prediction.

Wheels World by 10.5 (78.9%)

illinois frostes at The Mercenaries

Thanks to a loss to the Misfits, The Mercenaries already long odds of taking the #2 seed have all but vanished, and illinois frostes chances of taking the #4 seed have disappeared entirely.  The frostes are one of the few teams that are actually worse at rebounding than the Mercenaries.  Coupled with a below average offense and defense, it could turn out to be a long day for the frostes.

The Mercenaries by 17 (87.6%)

Cold Fish at The Ashkickers

Cold Fish lost big to Balls of Steel, but their playoff hopes are riding high still.  They have a soft remaining schedule with Ashkickers and Bautosai, although their lead in PD over Wheels World has gotten razer-thin.  Cold Fish should capitalize on their large advantage in rebounding and turn in an easy win.

Cold Fish by 9.0 (76.1%)

BC Iron Horse at Upland Raptors

Upland Raptors should coast in to a home playoff games with remaining games again BC Iron Horse and Crooklyn Ruckus.  Rebounding is nearly even here, but Upland’s defense should be adequate and offense should dominate BC Iron Horse.

Upland Raptors by 25.0 (93.6%)

Balls of Steel at Bautosai

Balls of Steel should hold on to their #2 seed here with an offense matched against a horrible defense.  Rebounding is actually pretty even in this game, with Balls of Steel holding a slight edge.

Balls of Steel by 13.4 (83.4%)

Cathar Heretic at Crooklyn Ruckus

Crooklyn is fighting to avoid auto-relegation at this point, as they are a game back of BC Iron Horse and Cathar Heretics.  All three teams are within 30 points of each other in the tiebreaker, with Cathar holding the edge at the moment.  A solid win by Crooklyn could give them a chance to stay in the league.

Crooklyn Ruckus by 11.7 (80.9%)

Big 8 Playoff Odds

Team	1	2	3	4	Overall
New York Knuckleheads	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Upland Raptors	0.0%	85.5%	14.5%	0.0%	100.0%
The Mercenaries	0.0%	14.5%	85.5%	0.0%	100.0%
Misfits	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	92.7%	92.7%
illinois frostes	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	7.3%

Cathar Heretics isn’t mathematically eliminated, but the odds of overcoming the 3 game difference and making up an astronomical PD is so low there wouldn’t really be a good number to put on the table, so I’d rather just mention it here.

The Great 8 is calculated differently, as the situation is a lot more complex.  For the Big 8, there were only a few permutations to go through, and for any given seed, there were at most 2 teams able to attain it.  In the Great 8, there are 5 teams eligible for 3 playoff spots.  Therefore, I did what any good statistician does when there are way to many scenarios to go through each one – I ran simulations.  I plugged in the chances for each team to win their respective games, and simmed it through 10,000 times.  The percentages for each team are based on these sims.  There is some variation to be expected, but the sim engine consistently ran the same percentages.  If you feel like, the error is about +/- 0.5% for most of the numbers.

Great 8 Playoff Odds

Team	1	2	3	4	Overall
Trombe BC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Balls of Steel	0.0%	73.2%	17.2%	8.2%	98.6%
Cold Fish	0.0%	25.4%	58.3%	14.9%	98.6%
Slashing Dragons	0.0%	1.0%	17.5%	48.5%	67.0%
Wheels World	0.0%	0.4%	7.0%	28.2%	35.6%
white -red knights	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%

And now your regular stats.

Ratings through Game 19

Team	Scoring Index	Rebounding Index	Defensive Index	Passing Index	Power Score
Trombe BC	105.1	108	78.5	13.9	41.5
New York Knuckleheads	98.2	110.9	78.3	9.2	32.9
Balls of Steel	92.6	106.2	88.3	7.8	11.4
Cold Fish	100.4	109.6	99.3	6.7	10.4
Upland Raptors	93.6	102.8	88.5	6.2	7.1
Slashing Dragons	99.2	95.8	91.1	10.2	7.1
The Mercenaries	97.2	94.6	85.6	6.3	5.5
Wheels World	95.6	100.7	96.2	8.5	1.6
white -red knights	90.5	100	93.8	6.9	-3.4
illinois frostes	90.2	91.3	92.3	9	-8.7
Misfits	91.8	98.5	100.1	5.5	-11.3
Bautosai	89.4	103.7	101	1.4	-13.6
The Ashkickers	90.3	92.3	94	3.5	-14.8
Crooklyn Ruckus	86.6	101.8	105.8	6.8	-17.6
BC Iron Horse	91.2	101	108.4	4.5	-18.7
Cathar Heretics	88.3	85.5	96.7	5.8	-24

Single Game Rating : Game 19

Team	Scoring	Rebounding	Defense	Passing	Power
The Mercenaries	113.6	122.7	79.2	3.6	53.3
Trombe BC	100.5	110.2	69.4	17.3	51.2
New York Knuckleheads	103.1	104.8	67	9.4	42.9
illinois frostes	99	105.2	81.3	13.8	29.3
Wheels World	109.3	111	102.5	8.4	18.8
Misfits	100.5	110.1	98	13	18.3
The Ashkickers	109.5	92.3	85.3	0.5	9.7
Slashing Dragons	103.9	91.3	95.3	11.5	4
Balls of Steel	95.3	108.7	103.9	7.8	0.4
Upland Raptors	98	89.9	100.5	11.4	-8.7
white -red knights	85.3	107.7	109.5	9.7	-14.3
Cold Fish	102.5	89	109.3	8.2	-17
BC Iron Horse	81.3	94.8	99	5	-25.4
Crooklyn Ruckus	67	95.2	103.1	2.5	-45.8
Bautosai	69.4	89.8	100.5	-5.4	-54.1
Cathar Heretics	79.2	77.3	113.6	10.1	-54.4