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Buzzerbeater Stats : Game 7

Author bledderag | 10.05.2009 | Category Statistics

A lot of huge games this last round, and the trend is more or less expected to continue, with half the games projecting to a 15+ point margin of victory on Tuesday.  We move into interconference play now, with the Great 8 hosting the Big 8 in the first round of games.

Team	Scoring	Defense	Rebounding	Passing	Overall
Lokomotiv Atlanta	100.7	85.2	117.2	11.2	37.4
Trombe BC	98.7	79.3	108.2	3	24.1
Upland Raptors	97.5	93.2	109.6	8.8	16.3
Slashing Dragons	95.8	90.3	100.1	8.6	7.7
illinois frostes	92.7	89.2	99.3	7.6	3.8
The Mercenaries	97.9	94.5	94.6	10.4	1.8
Cold Fish	91.5	100	108.8	6.9	0.6
Balls of Steel	93.3	96	99.6	9	-0.5
The Ashkickers	90.2	89.7	102.3	3	-0.8
Misfits	94.2	106.2	111.8	4.8	-2
Midnight Tokers	95.2	92.8	91.7	7.5	-5
Wheels World	99.6	104.4	99.7	6.4	-5.2
Darko The Dwarves	91.8	87.4	90.3	4.8	-7
white -red knights	95.2	94.7	90.2	7.6	-8.3
Riverside Douchebags	88.3	96	93.6	3	-17.6
homeboyz	80.6	104	91.7	1.7	-36.6

Projections

• Lokomotiv Atlanta over Wheels World by 25.4
• The Ashkickers over illinois frostes by 4.7
• Slashing Dragons over Darko The Dwarves by 16.7
• Upland Raptors over Riverside Douchebags by 18.2
• Cold Fish over Midnight Tokers by 11.2
• The Mercenaries over white -red knights by 0.5
• Balls of Steel over Misfits by 5.9
• Trombe BC over homeboyz by 54.5

Buzzerbeater Stats : Game 6

Author bledderag | 09.30.2009 | Category Statistics

Team	Scoring	Defense	Rebounding	Passing	Overall
Lokomotiv Atlanta	100	86.8	114.5	11.2	32.3
Trombe BC	96	82.8	104.8	3.9	15.3
Upland Raptors	93.9	91.4	108.3	7.6	11.8
Slashing Dragons	94.9	90.9	100.3	9.4	7.1
The Mercenaries	99.6	95.3	94.5	12.2	4.4
illinois frostes	92.1	90.3	100.1	8.6	3.8
Balls of Steel	90	89	100.1	9.3	3.8
The Ashkickers	90.3	89.6	101.8	2.9	-1.2
Misfits	94.8	106.3	111.8	5	-1.4
Cold Fish	94.5	103.6	106.4	7	-2.3
white -red knights	99.4	97.5	92.6	7	-5.1
Darko The Dwarves	92.6	87.2	90.6	4.9	-5.7
Midnight Tokers	95.7	95	92.7	6.2	-7.1
Wheels World	94.2	101.7	99.2	6.3	-8.6
Riverside Douchebags	91.1	94.6	96.4	1.9	-11.8
homeboyz	79.6	99.7	94.6	2.4	-29.7

Predictions :

• The Ashkickers over Slashing Dragons by 2.5
• Lokomotiv Atlanta over Misfits by 15.7
• illinois frostes over Darko the Dwarves by 12.7
• Trombe BC over Riverside Douchebags by by 14.4
• The Mercenaries over Midnight Tokers by 0.2
• Balls over Steels over Wheels World by 15.2
• Cold Fish over white -red knights by 8.7
• Upland Raptors over homeboyz by 37.6

Buzzerbeater Stats and Predictions Game 20

Author bledderag | 08.18.2009 | Category Statistics

Sorry about the lack of posts the last little while.  My work schedule changed this last week, and I am still sorting out when exactly my free time to do these posts will be, especially on Wednesday through Friday.  I am also going to try to find the time to work out a new projection system based entirely on team by team matchups.  I’m not sure when that will go live, though (probably next season)   First up, the results from this weeks games.

Through game 20

Team	Scoring Index	Rebounding Index	Defensive Index	Passing Index	Power Score
Trombe BC	104.7	108.3	79.3	13.7	40.4
New York Knuckleheads	98.1	111.2	78.6	9.4	33.1
Balls of Steel	92.6	107	87.3	7.9	13.3
Cold Fish	98.9	107.8	99	6.9	7.6
Slashing Dragons	99	96	90.9	10.4	7.5
Upland Raptors	94	103.4	89.1	5.8	7.2
The Mercenaries	97.8	93.7	86.7	6.3	4.1
Wheels World	95.2	100.7	96.2	8.1	0.8
white -red knights	90.6	99.3	94	6.6	-4.5
Misfits	92.5	99.9	100.5	5.5	-9.6
illinois frostes	89.9	90.9	92.5	8.8	-9.9
The Ashkickers	91.9	92.3	94.4	4	-13.2
Bautosai	90	104	102	1.5	-13.5
Crooklyn Ruckus	87.5	102.3	106	6.7	-16.5
BC Iron Horse	92.3	100.4	108	4.8	-17.6
Cathar Heretics	88.9	85.5	96.9	5.9	-23.5

Single Game Stats

Team	Scoring	Rebounding	Defense	Passing	Power
Balls of Steel	92.7	120.4	68.4	9.4	46.7
New York Knuckleheads	95.4	118.6	83.2	14.3	37.6
Misfits	104.6	126.7	107.9	6.6	22.7
Trombe BC	98.1	113.8	93.2	11.1	22.4
The Ashkickers	120.8	90.5	101.5	12.6	15
Slashing Dragons	96.4	99.6	88.3	14	14.3
Upland Raptors	99.2	115	98	0	8.9
Crooklyn Ruckus	102.5	110.2	109.1	5.4	1.6
BC Iron Horse	109.1	89.8	102.5	8.8	-2.1
Bautosai	101.5	109.5	120.8	3.8	-13.4
Wheels World	88.3	100.4	96.4	1	-14.1
Cathar Heretics	98	85	99.2	8	-15.7
white -red knights	93.2	86.2	98.1	1.6	-24.5
The Mercenaries	107.9	73.3	104.6	5.9	-25
illinois frostes	83.2	81.4	95.4	4.1	-34.1
Cold Fish	68.4	79.6	92.7	12.4	-39.6

And now we move on to the playoff odds.

Big 8 Playoff Odds

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Overall
New York Knuckleheads	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Upland Raptors	0.0%	99.1%	0.9%	0.0%	100.0%
The Mercenaries	0.0%	0.9%	99.1%	0.0%	100.0%
Misfits	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Great 8 Playoff Odds

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Overall
Trombe BC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Balls of Steel	0.0%	94.5%	3.8%	1.6%	99.9%
Cold Fish	0.0%	1.7%	64.5%	30.7%	96.9%
Slashing Dragons	0.0%	3.7%	29.8%	53.9%	87.4%
Wheels World	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	13.9%	15.8%

white -red knights move out of contention this round, as the odds of them catching up two games AND overcoming their PD deficiency is very, very small.  It is not mathematically impossible, but it is pretty close.  Misfits victory over The Mercenaries on Saturday locked up the 4th playoff spot, and essentially secured the 2nd playoff spot for the Upland Raptors.  Wheels World lost what could have been considered a play-in game with Slashing Dragons, and are now on the outside looking in.  All is not lost, but hope is fading quickly.  Balls of Steel and Cold Fish both play The Ashkickers and Bautosai to finish the season, an easy schedule to cruise into the playoffs.  Slashing Dragons and Wheels World both play white -red knights and Trombe BC, a much tougher schedule.  With Slashing Dragons holding a game advantage and the tiebreaker, they are by far favored to make the playoffs.

And now on to predictions.

Slashing Dragons at Trombe BC

Today we have two games between teams in playoff positions.  Slashing Dragons are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 9 in a row to go from a 3-8 team fighting to avoid relegation to a 12-8 team likely to make the playoffs.  Their last loss in a league game was over a month ago, on July 11.  And these have not generally been close game, with a 25 point average margin of victory during that win streak.  It may come to sudden half tonight as the Dragons face the best team in the league.  The Dragons have the scoring and defense to stay in the game, but it is in rebounding they fall short.  Trombe will likely win handily on second chance points.

Trombe BC by 31.0 (96.1%)

Misfits at New York Knuckleheads

Here we have a preview of a first round matchup, although here neither team has much to play for.  Both teams are locked into their playoff spots, unable to rise or fall in the standings.  The result here will likely mirror that in the playoffs, a blowout for the home team.

New York Knuckleheads by 38.3 (97.9%)

white -red knights at Wheels World

While effectively out of the playoff race, white -red knights does have something to play for.  He does have a decent enough shot at moving out of relegation match range (whether or not that is a good thing is up to you).  If he wins this game and at least doesn’t get blown out by Slashing Dragons, there is a chance that he might take the tiebreaker and move into the 5th spot in the rankings.  Wheels World needs this win just to keep his playoff hopes alive.  These teams are nearly identical in their ratings with Wheels World holding a slight edge in just about every category.  Home court makes up a large portion of this prediction.

Wheels World by 10.5 (78.9%)

illinois frostes at The Mercenaries

Thanks to a loss to the Misfits, The Mercenaries already long odds of taking the #2 seed have all but vanished, and illinois frostes chances of taking the #4 seed have disappeared entirely.  The frostes are one of the few teams that are actually worse at rebounding than the Mercenaries.  Coupled with a below average offense and defense, it could turn out to be a long day for the frostes.

The Mercenaries by 17 (87.6%)

Cold Fish at The Ashkickers

Cold Fish lost big to Balls of Steel, but their playoff hopes are riding high still.  They have a soft remaining schedule with Ashkickers and Bautosai, although their lead in PD over Wheels World has gotten razer-thin.  Cold Fish should capitalize on their large advantage in rebounding and turn in an easy win.

Cold Fish by 9.0 (76.1%)

BC Iron Horse at Upland Raptors

Upland Raptors should coast in to a home playoff games with remaining games again BC Iron Horse and Crooklyn Ruckus.  Rebounding is nearly even here, but Upland’s defense should be adequate and offense should dominate BC Iron Horse.

Upland Raptors by 25.0 (93.6%)

Balls of Steel at Bautosai

Balls of Steel should hold on to their #2 seed here with an offense matched against a horrible defense.  Rebounding is actually pretty even in this game, with Balls of Steel holding a slight edge.

Balls of Steel by 13.4 (83.4%)

Cathar Heretic at Crooklyn Ruckus

Crooklyn is fighting to avoid auto-relegation at this point, as they are a game back of BC Iron Horse and Cathar Heretics.  All three teams are within 30 points of each other in the tiebreaker, with Cathar holding the edge at the moment.  A solid win by Crooklyn could give them a chance to stay in the league.

Crooklyn Ruckus by 11.7 (80.9%)

Buzzerbeater Stats through Game 19

Author bledderag | 08.12.2009 | Category Statistics

New this week – playoff odds report!  First up is the Big 8.  The numbers for the Big 8 are done by using my prediction model (I know, I know, but it is all I’ve got) and calculating out the chances of each teams winning each of the remaining games.  Using these, I calculated the chances of team team getting each seed.

Big 8 Playoff Odds

Team	1	2	3	4	Overall
New York Knuckleheads	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Upland Raptors	0.0%	85.5%	14.5%	0.0%	100.0%
The Mercenaries	0.0%	14.5%	85.5%	0.0%	100.0%
Misfits	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	92.7%	92.7%
illinois frostes	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	7.3%

Cathar Heretics isn’t mathematically eliminated, but the odds of overcoming the 3 game difference and making up an astronomical PD is so low there wouldn’t really be a good number to put on the table, so I’d rather just mention it here.

The Great 8 is calculated differently, as the situation is a lot more complex.  For the Big 8, there were only a few permutations to go through, and for any given seed, there were at most 2 teams able to attain it.  In the Great 8, there are 5 teams eligible for 3 playoff spots.  Therefore, I did what any good statistician does when there are way to many scenarios to go through each one – I ran simulations.  I plugged in the chances for each team to win their respective games, and simmed it through 10,000 times.  The percentages for each team are based on these sims.  There is some variation to be expected, but the sim engine consistently ran the same percentages.  If you feel like, the error is about +/- 0.5% for most of the numbers.

Great 8 Playoff Odds

Team	1	2	3	4	Overall
Trombe BC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Balls of Steel	0.0%	73.2%	17.2%	8.2%	98.6%
Cold Fish	0.0%	25.4%	58.3%	14.9%	98.6%
Slashing Dragons	0.0%	1.0%	17.5%	48.5%	67.0%
Wheels World	0.0%	0.4%	7.0%	28.2%	35.6%
white -red knights	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%

And now your regular stats.

Ratings through Game 19

Team	Scoring Index	Rebounding Index	Defensive Index	Passing Index	Power Score
Trombe BC	105.1	108	78.5	13.9	41.5
New York Knuckleheads	98.2	110.9	78.3	9.2	32.9
Balls of Steel	92.6	106.2	88.3	7.8	11.4
Cold Fish	100.4	109.6	99.3	6.7	10.4
Upland Raptors	93.6	102.8	88.5	6.2	7.1
Slashing Dragons	99.2	95.8	91.1	10.2	7.1
The Mercenaries	97.2	94.6	85.6	6.3	5.5
Wheels World	95.6	100.7	96.2	8.5	1.6
white -red knights	90.5	100	93.8	6.9	-3.4
illinois frostes	90.2	91.3	92.3	9	-8.7
Misfits	91.8	98.5	100.1	5.5	-11.3
Bautosai	89.4	103.7	101	1.4	-13.6
The Ashkickers	90.3	92.3	94	3.5	-14.8
Crooklyn Ruckus	86.6	101.8	105.8	6.8	-17.6
BC Iron Horse	91.2	101	108.4	4.5	-18.7
Cathar Heretics	88.3	85.5	96.7	5.8	-24

Single Game Rating : Game 19

Team	Scoring	Rebounding	Defense	Passing	Power
The Mercenaries	113.6	122.7	79.2	3.6	53.3
Trombe BC	100.5	110.2	69.4	17.3	51.2
New York Knuckleheads	103.1	104.8	67	9.4	42.9
illinois frostes	99	105.2	81.3	13.8	29.3
Wheels World	109.3	111	102.5	8.4	18.8
Misfits	100.5	110.1	98	13	18.3
The Ashkickers	109.5	92.3	85.3	0.5	9.7
Slashing Dragons	103.9	91.3	95.3	11.5	4
Balls of Steel	95.3	108.7	103.9	7.8	0.4
Upland Raptors	98	89.9	100.5	11.4	-8.7
white -red knights	85.3	107.7	109.5	9.7	-14.3
Cold Fish	102.5	89	109.3	8.2	-17
BC Iron Horse	81.3	94.8	99	5	-25.4
Crooklyn Ruckus	67	95.2	103.1	2.5	-45.8
Bautosai	69.4	89.8	100.5	-5.4	-54.1
Cathar Heretics	79.2	77.3	113.6	10.1	-54.4

Buzzerbeater Predictions : Game 19

Author bledderag | 08.10.2009 | Category Statistics

The playoff race is heating up in the Great 8. Things have been tight for the last two playoff spots for a while now, but things are tightening up at the top as well now, as Balls of Steel and Cold Fish have dropped a few games recently. The result is that spots 2 through 4 are all up for grabs. Things will stay hot as this week 4 of the 5 teams playing for these spots are up against each other.

Featured Game

Cold Fish at Wheels World

First up in the Great 8 round robin has Wheels World hosting Cold Fish.  Wheels World currently holds the fourth playoff spot, but their lead  is razor-thin, as Slashing Dragons has a huge advantage in the point differential tiebreaker.  Cold Fish has the advantage in offense and rebounding, but Wheels World has a good enough offense to take advantage of Cold Fish’s poor defense.  That coupled with home court advantage gives Wheels World a fighting chance to hold on to their playoff spot this week.

Cold Fish by 3.0 (60.9%)

The Rest

Balls of Steel at Slashing Dragons

Balls of Steel suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Trombe BC on Saturday, and are looking to take that frustration out of someone.  They may not find it easy this round, as the Slashing Dragons are one of the hotter teams in the league right now.  Balls of Steels has an advantage in rebounding, but may find themselves at a slight disadvantage when they are trying to score.  The place where this game will be decided will be when the Dragons have the ball.  Slashing Dragons has a very good offense, but Balls of Steel counters with an equally good defense.  If the Dragons offense can get rolling, they can pull off the win.  But if the Balls of Steel defense proves too much, the road team will win.

Slashing Dragons by 2.6 (59.6%)

Crooklyn Ruckus at New York Knuckleheads

The Knuckleheads have secured the top playoff spot, and can focus on making sure they are in good shape for the playoffs.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily translate into a chance for Crooklyn.  The Knuckleheads will probably win easily.

New York Knuckleheads by 43.3 (98.6%)

Bautosai at Trombe BC

Mathematically, Trombe BC has not technically secured the top playoff spot.  However, in order for Trombe to drop to the #2 seed, he would have to lose the remaining games, Balls of Steel would have to win the rest of his games, AND Balls of Steel would have to catch up over 111 points in PD PER GAME.  Luckily, that will soon be a technicality, as Trombe will most likely win this game handily and secure the top seed.

Trombe BC by 46.6 (98.9%)

Upland Raptors at Misfits

The Raptors have a ticket to the playoffs, and will most likely take the #2 seed, as they have an easier remaining schedule than The Mercenaries.  They still have to take care of business and win the games they should.  The Misfits currently hold the last playoff spot, and are looking to keep it.  However, the only advantage Misfits have in this game is home court.  The Raptors hold a slight advantage in every aspect of this game.

Upland Raptors by 10.3 (78.5%)

Cathar Heretics at The Mercenaries

The Heretics pulled off an upset against the Mercenaries the first time around, and are looking to repeat that feat and attempt to move closer to the fourth playoff spot.  As always, the key to beating the Mercenaries is rebounding.  Cathar appears ill equipped to take advantage of that weakness, as they have the worst rebounding in the league.  The Mercenaries hold a decent advantage in every aspect of the game, including home court.

The Mercenaries by 25.6 (93.9%)

The Ashkickers at white -red knights

While the other four teams looking for playoff spots in the Great 8 beat each other up, this round white -red knights hopes to sneak in a free game against weaker competition.  These two teams are pretty even except in rebounding, where the knights have a solid advantage.  Coupled with home courts, it should turn out to be a decent win for the knights.

white -red knights by 16.0 (86.6%)

BC Iron Horse at illinois frostes

The frostes are hoping to quickly gain ground back on Misfits, while Iron Horse is hoping to avoid automatic relegation one year after being the #3 seed in the playoffs.  Iron Horse holds a sizeable rebounding advantage, but will have to somehow deal with their league-worst defense.

illinois frosted by 11.8 (81.0%)

Buzzerbeater Stats through Game 18

Author bledderag | 08.10.2009 | Category Statistics

Point of Interest

• Wheels World moves into positive territory with his win
• Misfits takes a strangle hold on the final playoff spot in the Big 8, with a 2 game lead with 4 to go
• The tight playoff race moves to the Great 8, with 5 teams within 2 games of each other fighting for 3 playoff spots
• Case for Slashing Dragons to make the playoffs – they lead all 5 teams in point differential with +182.  Next best is Balls of Steel with +130.  white-red knights is worst in point differential among the playoff contenders with -16.  The others are Cold Fish at +68 at Wheels World at +15.

Ratings through Game 18

Team	Scoring Index	Rebounding Index	Defensive Index	Passing Index	Power Score
Trombe BC	105.3	107.9	79	13.7	40.7
New York Knuckleheads	97.9	111.1	79	9.1	31.9
Balls of Steel	92.5	106.1	87.4	7.8	11.8
Cold Fish	100.3	110.8	98.7	6.6	11.7
Upland Raptors	93.4	103.5	87.8	5.9	7.6
Slashing Dragons	98.9	96.1	90.8	10.1	7
The Mercenaries	96.3	93.2	86	6.4	2.6
Wheels World	94.8	100.1	95.8	8.5	0.3
white -red knights	90.7	99.6	93.1	6.8	-3.2
illinois frostes	89.7	90.6	92.9	8.8	-11.1
Bautosai	90.3	104.5	101	1.7	-11.8
Misfits	91.3	97.9	100.2	5	-13.3
The Ashkickers	89.4	92.4	94.5	3.6	-16.3
Crooklyn Ruckus	87.6	102.2	105.9	7	-16.4
BC Iron Horse	91.7	101.4	108.9	4.5	-18.7
Cathar Heretics	88.9	86	95.8	5.6	-22.8

Single Game Rating : Game 18

Team	Scoring	Rebounding	Defense	Passing	Power
Trombe BC	119.6	133.8	72.5	15.5	89.1
New York Knuckleheads	97.2	119.4	72.3	11.2	48.1
Upland Raptors	106.4	119.1	94.4	3	26.7
Misfits	111.4	108.3	101.3	9.7	20.7
Cold Fish	112.2	107.8	101.9	3.3	14
Slashing Dragons	86.5	108.3	81.2	6.1	12.3
The Mercenaries	103.9	91.7	83.8	4.2	8.6
Wheels World	101.3	93.4	95.2	14.4	6.5
Bautosai	95.2	106.6	101.3	4.6	-2.3
white -red knights	101.9	92.2	112.2	11.6	-14
Crooklyn Ruckus	101.3	91.7	111.4	7.1	-18.8
BC Iron Horse	83.8	108.3	103.9	0.2	-19
The Ashkickers	81.2	91.7	86.5	-5.3	-26.3
illinois frostes	94.4	80.9	106.4	11.7	-26.8
Cathar Heretics	72.3	80.6	97.2	-3.8	-55.4
Balls of Steel	72.5	66.2	119.6	-3.3	-91.6