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Buzzerbeater Stats : Game 5

Author bledderag

And we are back! Sorry about the absence at the end of last season, but I just couldn’t find the time to get all the data collection and tables done. But the stats are back, and they’ve been upgraded! There are some major changes to the stats this season, so we’ll run through them before getting to the rankings.

First of all, strength of schedule has been added to the stats. This is really a no brainer in the additions department. You really shouldn’t see a huge jump in your ranking just because you got your turn to pound the league weakling. So now the rankings will reflect that.

Second, and a much larger change is twofold. First, the rankings will only reflect the last 11 games of the season. And second, those games will be weighted, with the most recent game being weighed the most. There is a fairly good reason for this. I wanted to improve upon the predictive nature of these rankings, to evaluate how strong an opponent is currently playing. Once we are up to 11 games played, the most recent game will weigh about twice as much as the first game counted. Overall, this will help the rankings give a better picture of how the teams are playing at the moment. It favors consistency over getting a hot early start and fading.

Now, on to the rankings!

Team	Scoring	Defense	Rebounding	Passing	Overall
Lokomotiv Atlanta	101.5	88.7	116.6	10.6	33.4
Trombe BC	102.1	87.1	103.8	3.4	15.5
The Mercenaries	102	95.9	95	12.6	7.1
Slashing Dragons	94.3	90.6	101.4	8.5	6.9
Upland Raptors	95.2	91.9	102.5	7.6	6.7
illinois frostes	91.1	92.7	101.9	9.4	3
Balls of Steel	94.3	96.2	101	10	2.4
Midnight Tokers	94.2	94.7	99.2	8.2	0.2
Misfits	97.3	105.5	110.7	4.2	0
Cold Fish	95	103.6	104.5	9.3	-1.5
white -red knights	96.4	95.1	96.9	6.8	-1.7
The Ashkickers	87.1	85.8	98	3.1	-4.2
Wheels World	95.1	100.8	101.6	6.3	-4.4
Darko The Dwarves	90.9	85.5	87.3	4.1	-10
Riverside Douchebags	89.4	95.1	93.9	1	-17.4
homeboyz	80.9	100.1	92.7	1.8	-31.4

Most of the rankings make sense, but you may be thinking that Slashing Dragons is ranked way too low. The Dragons only have one loss, but it was a really bad loss to a team that has otherwise played very poorly. Before that game, the Dragons overall score was in the high 20’s. That game by itself dropped his overall score 20 points. Regardless of how they’ve looked the other 4 games, they were really, really bad that one, and it can’t be ignored.

Projected Scores

I am also shaking up how I am projecting scores this season. During my commentary during last season, I’d often mention individual matchups between offense and defense. Unfortunately, this was not how I calculated the projections, instead simply using the overall scores for each team. This season, I am using matchups of each team, offense vs. defense and head to head on rebounding. This should yield more accurate results. Unfortunately, I have not yet completed my data collection on home court advantage, so I am just using rough estimates based on last year’s data.