Buzzerbeater Stats and Predictions Game 20
Sorry about the lack of posts the last little while. My work schedule changed this last week, and I am still sorting out when exactly my free time to do these posts will be, especially on Wednesday through Friday. I am also going to try to find the time to work out a new projection system based entirely on team by team matchups. I’m not sure when that will go live, though (probably next season) First up, the results from this weeks games.
Through game 20
| Team | Scoring Index | Rebounding Index | Defensive Index | Passing Index | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trombe BC | 104.7 | 108.3 | 79.3 | 13.7 | 40.4 |
| New York Knuckleheads | 98.1 | 111.2 | 78.6 | 9.4 | 33.1 |
| Balls of Steel | 92.6 | 107 | 87.3 | 7.9 | 13.3 |
| Cold Fish | 98.9 | 107.8 | 99 | 6.9 | 7.6 |
| Slashing Dragons | 99 | 96 | 90.9 | 10.4 | 7.5 |
| Upland Raptors | 94 | 103.4 | 89.1 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| The Mercenaries | 97.8 | 93.7 | 86.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 |
| Wheels World | 95.2 | 100.7 | 96.2 | 8.1 | 0.8 |
| white -red knights | 90.6 | 99.3 | 94 | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| Misfits | 92.5 | 99.9 | 100.5 | 5.5 | -9.6 |
| illinois frostes | 89.9 | 90.9 | 92.5 | 8.8 | -9.9 |
| The Ashkickers | 91.9 | 92.3 | 94.4 | 4 | -13.2 |
| Bautosai | 90 | 104 | 102 | 1.5 | -13.5 |
| Crooklyn Ruckus | 87.5 | 102.3 | 106 | 6.7 | -16.5 |
| BC Iron Horse | 92.3 | 100.4 | 108 | 4.8 | -17.6 |
| Cathar Heretics | 88.9 | 85.5 | 96.9 | 5.9 | -23.5 |
Single Game Stats
| Team | Scoring | Rebounding | Defense | Passing | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balls of Steel | 92.7 | 120.4 | 68.4 | 9.4 | 46.7 |
| New York Knuckleheads | 95.4 | 118.6 | 83.2 | 14.3 | 37.6 |
| Misfits | 104.6 | 126.7 | 107.9 | 6.6 | 22.7 |
| Trombe BC | 98.1 | 113.8 | 93.2 | 11.1 | 22.4 |
| The Ashkickers | 120.8 | 90.5 | 101.5 | 12.6 | 15 |
| Slashing Dragons | 96.4 | 99.6 | 88.3 | 14 | 14.3 |
| Upland Raptors | 99.2 | 115 | 98 | 0 | 8.9 |
| Crooklyn Ruckus | 102.5 | 110.2 | 109.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 |
| BC Iron Horse | 109.1 | 89.8 | 102.5 | 8.8 | -2.1 |
| Bautosai | 101.5 | 109.5 | 120.8 | 3.8 | -13.4 |
| Wheels World | 88.3 | 100.4 | 96.4 | 1 | -14.1 |
| Cathar Heretics | 98 | 85 | 99.2 | 8 | -15.7 |
| white -red knights | 93.2 | 86.2 | 98.1 | 1.6 | -24.5 |
| The Mercenaries | 107.9 | 73.3 | 104.6 | 5.9 | -25 |
| illinois frostes | 83.2 | 81.4 | 95.4 | 4.1 | -34.1 |
| Cold Fish | 68.4 | 79.6 | 92.7 | 12.4 | -39.6 |
And now we move on to the playoff odds.
Big 8 Playoff Odds
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knuckleheads | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Upland Raptors | 0.0% | 99.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| The Mercenaries | 0.0% | 0.9% | 99.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Misfits | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Great 8 Playoff Odds
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trombe BC | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Balls of Steel | 0.0% | 94.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 99.9% |
| Cold Fish | 0.0% | 1.7% | 64.5% | 30.7% | 96.9% |
| Slashing Dragons | 0.0% | 3.7% | 29.8% | 53.9% | 87.4% |
| Wheels World | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 13.9% | 15.8% |
white -red knights move out of contention this round, as the odds of them catching up two games AND overcoming their PD deficiency is very, very small. It is not mathematically impossible, but it is pretty close. Misfits victory over The Mercenaries on Saturday locked up the 4th playoff spot, and essentially secured the 2nd playoff spot for the Upland Raptors. Wheels World lost what could have been considered a play-in game with Slashing Dragons, and are now on the outside looking in. All is not lost, but hope is fading quickly. Balls of Steel and Cold Fish both play The Ashkickers and Bautosai to finish the season, an easy schedule to cruise into the playoffs. Slashing Dragons and Wheels World both play white -red knights and Trombe BC, a much tougher schedule. With Slashing Dragons holding a game advantage and the tiebreaker, they are by far favored to make the playoffs.
And now on to predictions.
Slashing Dragons at Trombe BC
Today we have two games between teams in playoff positions. Slashing Dragons are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 9 in a row to go from a 3-8 team fighting to avoid relegation to a 12-8 team likely to make the playoffs. Their last loss in a league game was over a month ago, on July 11. And these have not generally been close game, with a 25 point average margin of victory during that win streak. It may come to sudden half tonight as the Dragons face the best team in the league. The Dragons have the scoring and defense to stay in the game, but it is in rebounding they fall short. Trombe will likely win handily on second chance points.
Trombe BC by 31.0 (96.1%)
Misfits at New York Knuckleheads
Here we have a preview of a first round matchup, although here neither team has much to play for. Both teams are locked into their playoff spots, unable to rise or fall in the standings. The result here will likely mirror that in the playoffs, a blowout for the home team.
New York Knuckleheads by 38.3 (97.9%)
white -red knights at Wheels World
While effectively out of the playoff race, white -red knights does have something to play for. He does have a decent enough shot at moving out of relegation match range (whether or not that is a good thing is up to you). If he wins this game and at least doesn’t get blown out by Slashing Dragons, there is a chance that he might take the tiebreaker and move into the 5th spot in the rankings. Wheels World needs this win just to keep his playoff hopes alive. These teams are nearly identical in their ratings with Wheels World holding a slight edge in just about every category. Home court makes up a large portion of this prediction.
Wheels World by 10.5 (78.9%)
illinois frostes at The Mercenaries
Thanks to a loss to the Misfits, The Mercenaries already long odds of taking the #2 seed have all but vanished, and illinois frostes chances of taking the #4 seed have disappeared entirely. The frostes are one of the few teams that are actually worse at rebounding than the Mercenaries. Coupled with a below average offense and defense, it could turn out to be a long day for the frostes.
The Mercenaries by 17 (87.6%)
Cold Fish at The Ashkickers
Cold Fish lost big to Balls of Steel, but their playoff hopes are riding high still. They have a soft remaining schedule with Ashkickers and Bautosai, although their lead in PD over Wheels World has gotten razer-thin. Cold Fish should capitalize on their large advantage in rebounding and turn in an easy win.
Cold Fish by 9.0 (76.1%)
BC Iron Horse at Upland Raptors
Upland Raptors should coast in to a home playoff games with remaining games again BC Iron Horse and Crooklyn Ruckus. Rebounding is nearly even here, but Upland’s defense should be adequate and offense should dominate BC Iron Horse.
Upland Raptors by 25.0 (93.6%)
Balls of Steel at Bautosai
Balls of Steel should hold on to their #2 seed here with an offense matched against a horrible defense. Rebounding is actually pretty even in this game, with Balls of Steel holding a slight edge.
Balls of Steel by 13.4 (83.4%)
Cathar Heretic at Crooklyn Ruckus
Crooklyn is fighting to avoid auto-relegation at this point, as they are a game back of BC Iron Horse and Cathar Heretics. All three teams are within 30 points of each other in the tiebreaker, with Cathar holding the edge at the moment. A solid win by Crooklyn could give them a chance to stay in the league.
Crooklyn Ruckus by 11.7 (80.9%)
