Bledderag.com
Home of Obscure Stats projects and Bug Photos
Cute kids, gross bugs, reviews of random junk I watch, oh my!
Buzzerbeater Stats through Game 19
Author bledderag
New this week – playoff odds report! First up is the Big 8. The numbers for the Big 8 are done by using my prediction model (I know, I know, but it is all I’ve got) and calculating out the chances of each teams winning each of the remaining games. Using these, I calculated the chances of team team getting each seed.
Big 8 Playoff Odds
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knuckleheads | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Upland Raptors | 0.0% | 85.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| The Mercenaries | 0.0% | 14.5% | 85.5% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Misfits | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 92.7% | 92.7% |
| illinois frostes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
Cathar Heretics isn’t mathematically eliminated, but the odds of overcoming the 3 game difference and making up an astronomical PD is so low there wouldn’t really be a good number to put on the table, so I’d rather just mention it here.
The Great 8 is calculated differently, as the situation is a lot more complex. For the Big 8, there were only a few permutations to go through, and for any given seed, there were at most 2 teams able to attain it. In the Great 8, there are 5 teams eligible for 3 playoff spots. Therefore, I did what any good statistician does when there are way to many scenarios to go through each one – I ran simulations. I plugged in the chances for each team to win their respective games, and simmed it through 10,000 times. The percentages for each team are based on these sims. There is some variation to be expected, but the sim engine consistently ran the same percentages. If you feel like, the error is about +/- 0.5% for most of the numbers.
Great 8 Playoff Odds
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trombe BC | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Balls of Steel | 0.0% | 73.2% | 17.2% | 8.2% | 98.6% |
| Cold Fish | 0.0% | 25.4% | 58.3% | 14.9% | 98.6% |
| Slashing Dragons | 0.0% | 1.0% | 17.5% | 48.5% | 67.0% |
| Wheels World | 0.0% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 28.2% | 35.6% |
| white -red knights | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
And now your regular stats.
Ratings through Game 19
| Team | Scoring Index | Rebounding Index | Defensive Index | Passing Index | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trombe BC | 105.1 | 108 | 78.5 | 13.9 | 41.5 |
| New York Knuckleheads | 98.2 | 110.9 | 78.3 | 9.2 | 32.9 |
| Balls of Steel | 92.6 | 106.2 | 88.3 | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| Cold Fish | 100.4 | 109.6 | 99.3 | 6.7 | 10.4 |
| Upland Raptors | 93.6 | 102.8 | 88.5 | 6.2 | 7.1 |
| Slashing Dragons | 99.2 | 95.8 | 91.1 | 10.2 | 7.1 |
| The Mercenaries | 97.2 | 94.6 | 85.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Wheels World | 95.6 | 100.7 | 96.2 | 8.5 | 1.6 |
| white -red knights | 90.5 | 100 | 93.8 | 6.9 | -3.4 |
| illinois frostes | 90.2 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 9 | -8.7 |
| Misfits | 91.8 | 98.5 | 100.1 | 5.5 | -11.3 |
| Bautosai | 89.4 | 103.7 | 101 | 1.4 | -13.6 |
| The Ashkickers | 90.3 | 92.3 | 94 | 3.5 | -14.8 |
| Crooklyn Ruckus | 86.6 | 101.8 | 105.8 | 6.8 | -17.6 |
| BC Iron Horse | 91.2 | 101 | 108.4 | 4.5 | -18.7 |
| Cathar Heretics | 88.3 | 85.5 | 96.7 | 5.8 | -24 |
Single Game Rating : Game 19
| Team | Scoring | Rebounding | Defense | Passing | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Mercenaries | 113.6 | 122.7 | 79.2 | 3.6 | 53.3 |
| Trombe BC | 100.5 | 110.2 | 69.4 | 17.3 | 51.2 |
| New York Knuckleheads | 103.1 | 104.8 | 67 | 9.4 | 42.9 |
| illinois frostes | 99 | 105.2 | 81.3 | 13.8 | 29.3 |
| Wheels World | 109.3 | 111 | 102.5 | 8.4 | 18.8 |
| Misfits | 100.5 | 110.1 | 98 | 13 | 18.3 |
| The Ashkickers | 109.5 | 92.3 | 85.3 | 0.5 | 9.7 |
| Slashing Dragons | 103.9 | 91.3 | 95.3 | 11.5 | 4 |
| Balls of Steel | 95.3 | 108.7 | 103.9 | 7.8 | 0.4 |
| Upland Raptors | 98 | 89.9 | 100.5 | 11.4 | -8.7 |
| white -red knights | 85.3 | 107.7 | 109.5 | 9.7 | -14.3 |
| Cold Fish | 102.5 | 89 | 109.3 | 8.2 | -17 |
| BC Iron Horse | 81.3 | 94.8 | 99 | 5 | -25.4 |
| Crooklyn Ruckus | 67 | 95.2 | 103.1 | 2.5 | -45.8 |
| Bautosai | 69.4 | 89.8 | 100.5 | -5.4 | -54.1 |
| Cathar Heretics | 79.2 | 77.3 | 113.6 | 10.1 | -54.4 |
Comment
Options
-
August 12, 2009 -
Statistics -
0 comments
-
Comments RSS -
Del.ico.us
-
Digg!