Buzzerbeater Predictions : Game 16
Pretty poor week last week, as a lot of teams took my advice and put more effort than the other team into their games. As a result, I went 4-4 on my picks and averaged a whopping 19.4 points off on my spreads. Five games featured a team having a better attitude than their opponent, and another game had a team putting only 4 guys on the court. I should restress, these predictions assume equal effort. Predicting who will put more effort into a game isn’t statistics, it is mind reading (which, incidentally, I do not know how to do). For those interested, having an attitude advantage is worth, on average, 10.3 points. This week might be another rough one, as I am projected to 6.2 correct picks.
Featured Game
New York Knuckleheads at Upland Raptors
Upland Raptors does not have a good chance of squeeking out the top seed in the Big 8. If he does, it will have to start with winning this game. Currently Upland is 3 games back of first. If he loses, he goes 4 back with 6 to play and won’t have any shot. If he wins, he will be 2 back and will still need a lot of help to make it. But winning this game is a requirement toward that goal. To do that, the Raptors will have to overcome New York Knucklehead’s advantage in every single category. Both teams will be coming off tough victories against Great 8 playoff teams. Which one will keep the high going?
I should have noted this a few games ago, but New York Knuckleheads are the first team to guarantee a playoff spot. Upland Raptors needs only one more victory to secure a ticket to the playoffs as well.
New York Knuckleheads by 22.1 (92.5%)
The Rest
Trombe BC at Cold Fish
Trombe suffered a defeat against The Knuckleheads on Tuesday to ruin their perfect season. They are hoping to right the ship against Cold Fish, who also suffered through a loss to a Big 8 playoff team. Cold Fish have home court, and feature league-best rebounding. It may not be enough to overcome Trombe’s wrath, though. Trombe can secure a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either Wheels World or white -red knights.
Trombe BC by 11.9 (82.0%)
white -red knights at Balls of Steel
By losing on Tuesday, white -red knights opened the door for Wheels World to take their playoff spot. The knights are only 9 points behind in point differential, so a solid win could get them their playoff position back. Unfortunately, it probably won’t come on Saturday. Balls of Steel has home court in addition to an advantage in every aspect of the game. Expect Balls of Steel to take the lead and never look back.
Balls of Steel by 23.9 (93.6%)
The Mercenaries at Crooklyn Ruckus
The best way to beat The Mercenaries is to out-rebound them. The Mercenaries have a slightly above average offense and the 4th best defense in the league. But their rebounding is terrible, ranking 4th worst. With a slightly above average rebounding, Crooklyn might be able to take advantage and surprise The Mercenaries. But first they have to score on those second chances.
The Mercenaries by 9.9 (78.6%)
Wheels World at The Ashkickers
Wheels World posted a solid win on Tuesday to move up to a coveted playoff spot. Now the tricky part will be in keeping it. They start defending it with a game against The Ashkickers, who might put up more of a fight than you might expect. Both teams have offenses and defenses that hang around average. The Ashkickers have poor rebounding while Wheels World has an average rebounding, but The Ashkickers home court advantage nearly eliminated that angle. Expect a close one.
Wheels World by 1.2 (54.9%)
Slashing Dragons at Bautosai
Slashing Dragons have been on a tear, winning 4 straight games. This run has given them the reward of being only 1 game back of a playoff spot. The Dragons will need to keep the push going in order to move up to that 4th spot. They start by facing Bautosai, who has home court and an advantage in rebounding but little else. The Dragons should be able to keep the run going after a challenge by Bautosai.
Slashing Dragons by 8.0 (74.8%)
illinois frostes at Cathar Heretics
The frostes moved up to a playoff spot on Tuesday win a win over the knights. Now the real battle begins, as the Big 8 features 5 teams within a game of the last playoff spot. While the top three teams in the conference are largely set in their playoff spots, the bottom five will be engaging in a vicious round robin over who will likely face the New York Knuckleheads in the first round of the playoffs. The illinois frostes have a huge advantage in point differential, being 116 points better than the next best team.
As for this game, the frostes have the second worst rebounding in the league, but the Heretics have the worst by far. Otherwise the teams are fairly similar, with illinois featuring a slightly better defense. But home court nearly nullifys those advantages, projecting to a close game to start the round robin.
illinois frostes by 2.8 (60.6%)
Misfits at BC Iron Horse
We here at Bledderag Statistics reserve the right to withdraw predictions when one of the teams fails to put five people on the floor. BC Iron Horse has done this sporadically this season, causing some of the wild inconsistency this season. If they repeat this maneuver, automatically make Misfits the favorite. Even with those games included though, BC Iron Horse has been good enough in games they try in to be the favorite here. Misfits feature one of the worst offenses in the league, which will take on the worst defense in the league. Whoever overcomes their mediocrity the best will win this game.
BC Iron Horse by 9.6 (78.0%)